Abstract：Objective To describe the characteristics of mortality of female breast cancer from 2011 to 2016 in Beijing and to predict the mortality in 2020.Methods By using Beijing female breast cancer surveillance data, we described the crude mortality and standardized mortality of female breast cancer during 2011-2016, and predicted the mortality by 2020 using GM(1,1) model.Results During the study period, the average annual mortality of female breast cancer was 11.90/105; the mortality increased linearly over time (χ2=67.60,P<0.000). The age-standardized mortality by Chinese standard population and by world standard population was 6.58/105and 6.19/105, respectively. In terms of age-specific mortality, female breast cancer had a clear growing trend with increasing age (χ2=14.73, P<0.000).The GM (1,1) model analyses generated a predicative function: Y(t) =210.6922e0.0507 (t-1) -200.2682; the effects of prediction were acceptable. The predicted female breast cancer mortality in Beijing in 2020 was 16.44/105.Conclusion Breast cancer remains one of the major female cancer death reasons, and shows a rising trend. Prevention and treatment of female breast cancer is still an important challenge. GM (1,1) model can be used to predict the mortality of female breast cancer in Beijing.
高燕琳, 王晶, 李刚. 2011—2016年北京市女性乳腺癌死亡状况和趋势分析[J]. 中国生育健康杂志, 2018, 29(1): 5-7.
GAO Yanlin, WANG Jing, LI Gang. Secular trend of mortality of female breast cancer in Beijing during 2011-2016. Chinese Journal of Reproductive Health, 2018, 29(1): 5-7.
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