广东省2005—2015年剖宫产率趋势分析及预测

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摘要目的分析广东省不同区域、不同级别医疗机构2005—2013年剖宫产率趋势并预测2014、2015年剖宫产率,为降低剖宫产率相关措施的制定提供参考依据。方法采用Mann-Kendall 法对广东省2005—2013年剖宫产率进行趋势检验,采用二次指数平滑法预测2014、2015年剖宫产率。结果 2005—2013年间,广东省各区域年剖宫产率总体均呈现出上升的趋势,经济发达地区年剖宫产率高于经济欠发达地区,医疗卫生机构级别越高,剖宫产率也越高。2005—2013年部队、省属医院年剖宫产率呈现出缓慢下降的趋势,部属医院存在很明显的上下波动趋势。地市、县区、乡镇级医疗机构年剖宫产率保持在一定范围内波动,地市级为42%～44%,县区级为32%～35%,乡镇级为17%～20%。2014、2015年剖宫产率预计比2012、2013年偏低,但波动不大。结论广东省年剖宫产率存在着地域别和医疗机构级别差异,降低剖宫产率不可忽视区域经济和医疗卫生系统水平差异的因素。建议实施降低剖宫产的相关制度,加强行政监管,提高社会对剖宫产的正确认识。

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	马远珠
	夏建红
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	王雄虎
	赵庆国

关键词 ：剖宫产, Mann-Kendall法, 二次指数平滑法

Abstract：Objective To analyze the trend of cesarean section (CS) from 2005 to 2013 in Guangdong Province and to predict the rates in 2014 and 2015. Methods Mann-Kendall method was used to analyze the trend and secondary exponential smoothing method was used to predict the CS rates in 2014 and 2015. Results There was a rising trend in CS rate in every region of Guangdong from 2005 to 2013. The CS rates in the developed regions were higher than those in less developed regions. The CS rate was higher in higher level medical and health institutions. A downward trend was observed in military and provincial hospitals while the trend in affiliated hospitals showed obvious fluctuation and the rates in hospitals of municipal, county and town level maintained a smooth fluctuation range. The CS rate was 42%~44% in municipal level hospitals, 32%~35% in county level hospitals and 17%~20% in township level hospitals. Compared with the rates in 2012 and 2013, the predicted rates were a little bit lower and the fluctuation was not so obvious. Conclusion To reduce the already high CS rate, regional economy and medical and health system should be taken into consideration. Criteria for CS, administrative supervision and public education about CS should be part of the efforts in reducing CS rate in the province.

Key words： Cesarean Section Mann-Kendall Secondary exponential smoothing

收稿日期: 2014-12-29

通讯作者: 赵庆国(445227058@qq.com)

引用本文:

马远珠, 夏建红, 李兵, 王雄虎, 赵庆国. 广东省2005—2015年剖宫产率趋势分析及预测[J]. 中国生育健康杂志, 2015, 26(6): 496-500.
MA Yuanzhu, XIA Jianhong, LI Bing, WANG Xionghu, ZHAO Qingguo. Trend analysis and prediction of Cesarean section rate in Guangdong Province, 2005-2015. Chinese Journal of Reproductive Health, 2015, 26(6): 496-500.

链接本文:

http://cjrh.bjmu.edu.cn/CN/ 或 http://cjrh.bjmu.edu.cn/CN/Y2015/V26/I6/496

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